by Cameron Moore (8th)
Hello, Colonial Middle School! Welcome back. I hope all of you had a great summer.
Sorry for this, but I’m starting this year on a much more somber note, as the potential for a lockout in the 2027 Major League Baseball season is not only possible, but is also not unlikely to occur due to one thing: salary caps.
Following the conclusion of the 2026 MLB season, the league, represented by the 30 team owners and MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, will be entering negotiations with the MLB Players Association, led by former MLB player Tony Clark, to discuss a new collective bargaining agreement.
In case you do not know, a collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is an agreement between an employer and the workers union, representing all workers in a company. It is an official document that establishes wages, hours, working conditions, etc. Organizations from construction companies to our very own school district have CBAs.
In pro sports, especially major leagues, it works a little bit differently, but is still the same concept. League owners and their players agree on pay structures, rules and many other things. However, this means that when the players and teams don’t agree, especially in major leagues watched by tens of thousands of people, the results of a lockout can be catastrophic.
Many pro sports leagues have experienced lockouts, some more devastating than others. The most recent MLB lockout, occurring prior to the 2022 season, did not cancel any regular season games, although it did affect spring training. One of the worst lockouts in sports history was the 2004-05 NHL lockout, which canceled the entire season. Football and basketball have also had some pretty brutal lockouts.
Many of the older lockouts were based on issues regarding free agency, although that has been mostly fixed with more open free agency. However, an issue that has recently popped up in MLB specifically is the salary cap.
Many other leagues have salary caps, some hard caps (fixed amount a team can spend on players), and some soft caps (penalties for exceeding the cap). However, baseball is unique from many other leagues in America, since it doesn’t have a salary cap. Theoretically, this can create a pay-to-win system in baseball that makes the game more unbalanced.
Late 2024 saw the first ever $700 million contract. It was to baseball player Juan Soto, simply because Mets owner Steve Cohen not only has truckloads of money, but knows that the signing of Soto won’t restrict him from signing more players.
Why? He has no salary cap to worry about.
However, pretty much all MLB owners want a salary cap. Why? Money, that’s why.
A salary cap would allow all owners to save money, thus widely benefiting poorer owners especially, who have lower payrolls and would benefit from an evening of the playing field.
However, many players oppose the cap. Higher-paid players in particular have had extreme pushback, most notably highlighted recently when Bryce Harper cursed out Manfred over cap discussions.
From the words of MLBPA head Tony Clark, “A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game.” It’s clear that, as they always are, the players of Major League Baseball are against a salary cap, especially since they believe Manfred is attempting to push a cap.
Manfred has addressed this, though. “When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” he said in an interview.
However, in response to salary cap talks, the players have proposed a salary floor to go along with it, something that the owners of lower-payroll teams like the Pirates and Marlins, have rejected.
Will a potential lockout last the whole 2027 season? No, extremely unlikely. Does it mean we will lose regular-season games for the first time since 1995?
It is, unfortunately, not out of the question.